A potential US-Iran peace deal, expected to be signed on June 19, is anticipated to ease geopolitical stress and benefit various sectors, particularly in India, with analysts suggesting investors await finer details before making significant moves.
Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty surged significantly in early trade, mirroring a global rally and a sharp decline in crude oil prices following the finalisation of a peace deal between the US and Iran to end their 107-day conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has criticised Prime Minister Narendra Modi's foreign policy and his remarks referencing the COVID-19 pandemic in relation to the West Asia situation.
Domestic passenger vehicle dispatches in India rose 10.6% in February, driven by utility vehicles and two-wheelers, but the industry remains cautious due to geopolitical tensions.
While investors would focus on the results and guidance for the third quarter of financial year 2025-26 (Q3FY26) in the normal course of business, the US-Israeli attack on Iran and the latter's retaliation at Gulf allies of the US has forced them to weigh the consequences of the event.
A poor monsoon could drag overall economic growth and compound the impact of the West Asia conflict on the Indian economy.
The Indian government has increased the export duty, or windfall tax, on diesel to Rs 55.5 per litre and on aviation fuel (ATF) to Rs 42 a litre, effective immediately, to boost domestic availability and prevent exporters from exploiting global price differences.
Amid the ongoing conflict in West Asia, Israeli Ambassador to India, Reuven Azar, stated that Israel is willing to cease hostilities if Iran changes its course, emphasising that Tel Aviv has consulted diplomatic channels, including the US and regional partners.
'FPIs are unlikely to return unless there is equilibrium between valuation premium and earnings growth.'
India's wholesale price inflation (WPI) increased to 9.87 per cent in June, up from 9.68 per cent in May, primarily due to significant price increases in non-food and food products, with food inflation alone rising to 5.49 per cent.
The Indian rupee depreciated significantly against the US dollar, reaching a new all-time low due to rising oil prices, a strong dollar, and ongoing geopolitical concerns. Domestic equity market declines and foreign investment outflows further contributed to the rupee's weakness.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump discussed the Middle East crisis, with a focus on the Strait of Hormuz.
Increased input costs due to geopolitical conflict in West Asia and unseasonal rain in March negatively impacted volumes of consumer durables makers, particularly air conditioners, in Q4FY26, leading to projected declines in EBITDA and APAT despite revenue growth.
India has voiced its deep concern over reports of increasing civilian casualties in Lebanon due to Israeli strikes, emphasising the protection of civilians and the importance of international law.
ICICI Bank reported a 9.28 per cent increase in its consolidated net profit to Rs 14,755 crore for the March quarter of FY26, primarily driven by a nearly 90 per cent reduction in provisioning. The bank's executive director, Sandeep Batra, noted strong asset growth but expressed caution regarding the geopolitical situation in West Asia.
Civil Aviation Minister K Rammohan Naidu announced that public sector oil marketing companies will implement a partial and staggered increase in jet fuel prices for domestic airlines, aiming to protect passengers from steep fare hikes.
Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Thursday signed the historic peace deal between the United States and Iran as a guarantor; the agreement will see the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of the US naval blockade.
India's exports increased by 15.5 per cent to USD 40.41 billion in June, but the trade deficit significantly widened to a record USD 30.43 billion due to a 31 per cent surge in imports.
Indian realty developers are contemplating price increases for ongoing and upcoming projects to offset margin pressures caused by rising input costs and supply chain disruptions, exacerbated by the West Asia conflict. Input and labour costs have surged by 5-12%, directly impacting developer margins, especially for under-construction projects.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has appealed to citizens to adopt austerity measures, including avoiding destination weddings abroad and reducing edible oil consumption, to mitigate the impact of the West Asia crisis on India's economy.
The Indian government has imposed a new windfall gains tax of Rs 3 per litre on petrol exports, while simultaneously reducing the levy on diesel to Rs 16.5 per litre and aviation turbine fuel (ATF) to Rs 16 per litre, effective May 16.
Both Houses of Parliament were adjourned sine die, concluding a Budget session marked by the passage of key legislations and the defeat of a Constitution amendment bill on women's reservation. The session saw frequent opposition protests and discussions on various issues, including the West Asia conflict.
Companies are already diversifying sourcing, raising prices, and reworking operating models as the disruption drags on.
India's consumption stocks, which have outperformed the broader market, are now facing significant pressure due to a gradual rise in fuel prices and the potential for higher inflation. Analysts warn that companies may be forced to pass on increased input costs to consumers, potentially hurting demand across both staples and discretionary categories, with a looming threat of deficient monsoon rainfall further exacerbating inflationary concerns.
Gold and silver are expected to remain volatile with a corrective bias as investors assess the latest flare-up in the US-Iran conflict, movements in crude oil prices, and inflation data, which could reshape expectations for global interest rates, according to analysts.
India's foreign exchange reserves saw a significant drop of USD 7.794 billion, settling at USD 690.693 billion for the week ending May 1, as reported by the RBI, reflecting the impact of global events and central bank interventions.
Despite a ceasefire agreement between Iran and the United States, the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked due to Iran's inability to locate and remove all the mines it laid during the conflict, hindering global oil and gas supplies.
'OMCs are incurring losses of Rs 1,000 crore per day due to the West Asia crisis.'
The incident came shortly after a spokesperson from Iran's military warned that Tehran could target ports and docks in the United Arab Emirates following recent United States strikes on Kharg Island, a key hub for Iran's oil exports.
A senior Russian official has stated that Russia is prepared to supply fertilisers and other agricultural products to countries in the Global South and East, following concerns about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz impacting global fertiliser exports and food security.
India Ratings and Research predicts the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will maintain the repo rate at 5.25 per cent throughout FY27, despite potential inflationary pressures from higher fuel prices, with inflation expected to remain within the central bank's tolerance band.
Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan held an online meeting with Loka Kerala Sabha members in the Gulf region to discuss support for the expatriate community amidst the escalating conflict in West Asia.
'If movement remains stalled for three to four months, more than 300,000 recruitments from India could be affected.'
The Indian government addressed opposition concerns regarding the West Asia crisis in an all-party meeting, outlining its strategy for ensuring the security of the Indian diaspora, fulfilling energy needs, and maintaining diplomatic relations with key partners. The government also dismissed Pakistan's reported mediation efforts.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the central government have introduced a package of measures, including tax exemptions for FPIs on government securities and a concessional foreign-exchange swap facility, aiming to attract up to $50 billion in foreign capital. This initiative is designed to strengthen India's balance of payments and potentially cover the projected BoP gap for FY27.
The escalating conflict in West Asia has resulted in 19 ships carrying essential energy resources for India being stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns about potential disruptions to the country's energy supply.
'When I look at India's relative valuations, these are by far the lowest I have seen in my 35-year career.' 'The relative 12-month trailing performance is among the weakest I have seen, and foreign investor positioning is at a 16-17 year low.'
Indian carriers have cancelled over 10,000 flights since the onset of the West Asia conflict, as escalating tensions and airspace restrictions disrupted international operations, a senior government official said.
Russia has expressed strong concern over a US-Israeli strike on the Iranian port of Bandar Anzali, a key transit hub on the INSTC, warning of the risk of drawing Caspian states into the ongoing conflict.
Air India Group anticipates the delivery of 50-60 new aircraft within the next 18 months, with its ambitious transformation programme progressing despite global challenges like supply chain issues and geopolitical tensions, according to Chief Commercial Officer Nipun Aggarwal.
